Future U.S.-Egypt relations hinge on three key factors

Future U.S.-Egypt relations hinge on three key factors

University Park, Pa. -- Most Egyptians like Americans as a people, but strongly resent the United States' current Middle East policy, especially as regards Iraq and Israel. This ambivalence makes it difficult to predict the future success of U.S. foreign policy in Egypt, according to a Penn State Middle East history expert.

Regardless of their political and religious persuasions, Egyptians are generally friendly and hospitable toward individual Americans and eager to learn more about American culture, says Arthur Goldschmidt, professor emeritus of Middle East history at Penn State and author of the book, Modern Egypt: The Formation of a Nation State (Westview), now in its second edition.

Egypt's importance in American foreign policy can be measured by the $2 billion in assistance that Egypt receives annually from the United States, making it the number two beneficiary of foreign aid after Israel, Goldschmidt says. As a result, under the regime of Hosni Mubarak, president since 1981, Egypt has, to a large degree, served as an oasis of stability in the Middle East.

In an updated chapter of the book, he notes, "An honest and self-effacing leader, Mubarak has been faithful to the March 1979 treaty that recognizes Israel as a sovereign state. He has stood firm by this pact despite the widespread perception in Egypt that it has not produced a more comprehensive peace with Israel, including a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

Future relations of Egypt with the United States will rely on three factors, the first being the successor of the 76-year Mubarak and how that person chooses to deal with the United States. "Mubarak has no vice president. If he were to resign from office or die suddenly, no one can be sure who would succeed him," adds Goldschmidt.

A second condition will be the strength of Islamic fundamentalism in the next generation. The revival of Islam in Egypt, especially since the late 1960s, reflects somewhat the tension in Egypt between the forces of modernization and the search for authenticity. For many Egyptian Muslims, cultural authenticity means living by the legal code of Islam, the Shari'ah, the Penn State historian notes. Some Egyptian Muslims even favor the recreation of the Islamic caliphate that existed from the death of Muhammad in 632 until the early 1920s.

More radical forms of Islam have also increased in power and influence in recent decades, as demonstrated by the assassination of Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat.

"Although the Egyptian government still sides with the United States in its war against terrorism, the public has in recent years strongly opposed the American attacks, sanctions and invasion of Iraq and U.S. support for Israel against the Palestinians," Goldschmidt notes. An Egyptian physician is among the early associates of Osama Bin Laden and a founder of Al-Qaeda, ("The Base"). Four of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Egyptians.

However, despite their disapproval of U.S. policy, many, perhaps even most, Egyptian Muslims, still question radical Islamists, however, according to the Penn State historian.

"The terrorism of Islamists has in fact antagonized the people since it has threatened Egypt's economy, dependent as it in on tourism and foreign trade," Goldschmidt says. "Egyptians are also proud of the mutual tolerance between Muslims and Coptic Christians and fault the Islamists for stirring up tensions between the two religions. The traditional subordination of women to men, often ascribed to Islam even by Muslims, is no longer functional in a society where women's earnings outside the home have become necessary to support most families, urban or rural."

A third factor is the widening economic gap between wealthy and poor in Egypt, a development made all too obvious by radio, television and the Internet. Also, rapid population growth and food shortages in recent decades have worsened economic hardships for the citizens.

"The population of Egypt, 74 million in 2003, has already increased by one million in only 10 months. At the same time, the amount of arable land has actually declined, owing in part to the demand for housing but also to a legacy of ill-conceived agricultural policies that make it more profitable for some peasants to turn their soil into bricks than to raise the three crops per year made possible by perennial irrigation," Goldschmidt says.

The uncertainty as to whom will succeed Mubarak, the rise of militant Islam and the economic pressures facing the average Egyptian may combine to create a volatile state of affairs in Egypt as the 21st century unfolds, the Penn State historian notes.

The resulting ambivalence toward the United States could turn into bitter hostility with dire political consequences for U.S. foreign policy in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East, he adds.