Penn State implements comprehensive influenza pandemic plan

University Park, Pa. -- To proactively address concerns about the potential impact of a widespread influenza epidemic, Penn State is developing a comprehensive plan to protect the University community.

Margaret Spear, senior director of University Health Services, provided a brief update on the important pandemic planning that is underway at Penn State at the Board of Trustees meeting on May 12 on the University Park campus.

Spear said there is general agreement among virologists and public health experts that a new pandemic -- probably related to an avian virus -- is inevitable. In the last five years, a new virus, H5N1, has been killing birds in Asia, Europe and Africa; it has infected 204 people, 114 of whom have died. Experts cannot predict whether H5N1 will lead to a full-fledged pandemic -- a global disease outbreak -- or if another virus will be implicated. However, Spear noted, "As one expert has said, 'The clock is ticking. We just don’t know what time it is.'"

"It is clear that we need to do what we can to be prepared in order to modulate the impact of such an event," said Spear. "We believe that planning for such an event will help us manage not only the predicted events but the unpredicted, as well."

Since December, Penn State has been preparing for the eventuality of a pandemic. The focus of the University's efforts has been on four different areas: Planning and coordination; infection control policies and procedures; continuity of student learning and University operations; and communication.

To offer some perspective on the seriousness of influenza pandemics, Spear reviewed the impact of three major global influenza outbreaks in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The 1918 pandemic, for instance, killed as many as 100 million people worldwide and was the result of a mutation from an avian virus.

Spear offered some sobering predictions with regard to a potential outbreak. Even a mild pandemic may kill between 89,000 and 207,000 in the United States, with worldwide deaths between 2 million and 7.4 million. In Centre County, with a population of 140,476, it is projected that 35,119 cases are possible; hospitalizations could range from 421 to 2,529, and deaths could range from 102 to 818. At the University Park campus, Penn State could see as many as 10,500 cases among its 42,000-plus population; hospitalizations might affect 126 to 750 people, and number of deaths could range from 30 to 185.

Even a mild pandemic is likely to cause significant economic and social disruption. Experts predict workplace absenteeism in the range of 40 percent or more. Interruption of food supplies -- and possibly major social infrastructure systems such as power, telecommunications and water -- may occur.

As part of Penn State's comprehensive pandemic plan, a planning and coordination group -- which includes professionals from the University, state health department and local community who represent areas such as public health and safety, law enforcement, housing and food services, international programs, student affairs, communications, academic affairs and emergency response -- is working to define their responsibilities and to identify the resources necessary to respond swiftly to different outbreak scenarios.

The University's infection-control plan emphasizes simple, common-sense prevention strategies, including hand hygiene and cough/sneeze etiquette; the development of policies related to influenza-related absences; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-directed guidelines for isolation and quarantine and the use of personal protective equipment; and distribution of any available vaccine.

Penn State already has adopted and promoted CDC travel guidelines that relate to avian and seasonal influenza and will continue to share updates with students and staff.

Continuity of University operations also will be a huge challenge in the face of high rates of illness and absenteeism, Spear explained, but Penn State is working on a variety of strategies to assure that essential functions will be preserved.

Since communication with students, faculty and staff would be critical during a pandemic crisis, University officials have developed an extensive communication plan that includes identification of appropriate media for each stage of the pandemic, an array of sample press releases and other informational items that can be modified as needed.

"We expect to continue to refine and improve our plan as knowledge about a new pandemic evolves," said Spear. "We know we cannot prevent the inevitable, but we believe that active anticipation and preparation will help minimize the impact to the University, its staff and students."